The Caribbean conundrum: Russian nuclear capabilities and US retaliations

In the azure waters of the Caribbean Sea, geopolitical tensions simmer, and the stakes are higher than ever. In a previously article, I warned that the Caribbean could become a theatre for a superpower showdown. Brace yourselves, dear audience, as we watch it all happen in our lifetime, be it in the Caribbean Sea, the Pacific or some other ocean. The battle of submarines, sovereignty, and unsettling retaliations. Sorry to be the alarmist, but you had better buckle up as the Caribbean breeze carries whispers of danger and diplomacy.

 If you missed it, most recently, the presence of Russian warships, including a nuclear-powered submarine, in the Caribbean raised eyebrows and sparked concerns among regional stakeholders. As tensions between the United States and Russia persist, the Caribbean islands find themselves caught in a geopolitical crossfire.

Three Russian ships – a frigate, a fleet oil tanker and a salvage tug all accompanied by a nuclear powered submarine, arrived in Cuban waters for a military exercise. This is not new for the Russians, but the significance is in the timing of the move. While these exercises are not directly aimed at the US, American vessels have been deployed to shadow the Russian fleet. The submarine, although nuclear-powered, is not carrying nuclear weapons. However, the situation remains delicate, and the Caribbean islands may be one step away from a fatal miscommunication. If for some reason there was a deployment of a non-lethal missile or an accidental exercise that will be all it takes to start a conflict in our territorial waters in which we will have absolutely no place to voice our rights when the two giants fight.

As a region, Caribbean islands are small, less respected and often overlooked in global politics. Our economies heavily rely on tourism, trade, and stability. The very presence of Russian warships underscores our vulnerability to external forces. In the event of heightened tensions between the US and Russia, the Caribbean could become a proxy battleground, disrupting regional stability. Take for example, the proxy battleground of the Yemeni Crisis and how they have suffered.

Any escalation in the region could harm the Caribbean economies. Tourism, our major revenue source, would suffer if conflict disrupted travel or led to security concerns. Additionally, trade routes passing through the Caribbean could be affected, impacting vital imports and exports.

This naval conflict could have severe environmental consequences as well. Oil spills, damage to coral reefs, and contamination of marine ecosystems would harm the islands’ fragile ecosystems. The Caribbean’s rich biodiversity would be at risk. How are we to prevent such a catastrophic event from occurring? We would lose our sovereignty. Our nations must balance our security interests while maintaining sovereignty. The presence of foreign warships raises questions about territorial integrity and the ability to protect our waters. Cooperation with international partners becomes crucial to address security challenges. We cannot rely on the United States for our security when the very giant is the one breaching our security in the first place.  Though the intentions of the US may be of grave concern the fact that the US decided to trail the Russian subs in our waters gives me goosebumps.

Unfortunately, for Trinidad and Tobago, its strategic location in the southern Caribbean, offers a vantage point for monitoring maritime traffic in the region. As in the past, the US could re-establish their naval bases on the island to enhance surveillance capabilities and respond swiftly to any threats. They could host radar systems, satellite communication facilities, and intelligence centres to track Russian naval movements, including submarines, in the Caribbean. This could pose an anti-submarine warfare within our territory causing unimaginable and unintended consequences. I mean, what would we benefit from such a conflict. We would definitely lose more lives, infrastructure, agriculture and oil from a conflict that we will be forced to enter.

The Russian naval manoeuvres in the Caribbean serve as a reminder that even seemingly distant geopolitical tensions can impact small island nations. The Caribbean islands must navigate this delicate situation, advocating for peace while safeguarding their interests. As the world watches, the region hopes for stability and dialogue, rather than conflict, in its azure waters.

Subrina Hall Azih is a Trinidadian educator.