Unpacking the Trump Win in the 2024 US Presidential Election

People left of center are stunned, others are crying, and still others are disappointed and anxious about Donald Trump winning the 2024 Presidential Election. The US has been politically polarized since 2000. The Democrats and Kamala Harris assumed that because their core supporters agree with them that Trump is a racist, he is a misogynist, he is xenophobic, he is a convicted felon awaiting sentencing and is a publicly confessed authoritarian who threatens American democracy, that these issues were important to most Americans. They were wrong. I will discuss a few of these hot button issues because most Americans deem their position on these issues sacrosanct which does not accord with the Democratic position.

Transgenderism and Homosexuality

The Democrats have an extremist transgender agenda. For e.g., a biological male can identify as a woman and decide to start using female restrooms and the man would be within his right to do this. A teacher had a student who transitioned from boy to girl. The teacher was supportive of the student and called the student by “her” new name. However, the teacher did not believe in pronouns and was fired. It is these and other kinds of extremism that the Democrats support. The average American will tolerate diversity, but they do not appreciate impositions that defy logic and fairness. The same with homosexuality. People who treat homosexuals respectfully and fairly but religiously articulate that it is wrong are hounded by the hoards as bigots and in some instances have been fired from their jobs. These actions violate freedom of religion, conscience and speech.

Immigration

Immigration is the centuries old paradox where most voters want less immigration although the US is a country of immigrants. Immigration was at the top of the voters’ problem list. Some voters believes that immigrants are taking their jobs, but Americans tend not to do the jobs that immigrants take. The sanctuary city of New York (NY) provides a glimpse into the problem. Immigrants are bussed to NY and put up in hotels or shelters for weeks. They are also provided with cash cards for food while there are some poor and homeless that NY ignores. This and similar policies in sanctuary cities upset many voters.

Abortion and Reproductive Rights

Most voters support reproductive rights despite the supreme court’s abortion ban. However, women’s right to body sovereignty where they make decisions about their own body marginalizes men and their relationship rights. If a woman gets pregnant and decides to have an abortion, it is her decision alone to make even though 50% of the fetus she carries belong to her man. However, if a man impregnates a woman and he doesn’t want the child, but the woman does, he has no recourse but to accept the child and subsequently pay child support. Democratic extremists continue to ignore the reproductive rights of men and abortion is now a contraceptive. Moreover, for many religious people on the left and right, abortion is murder. The Democrats ignored these issues and framed these people as stupid Trump supporters to their detriment.

Freedom of Speech

The Fifth Amendment protects freedom of speech. One attack against freedom of speech started two decades ago at universities across the country. Speakers on the right can no longer speak at many universities because they are harassed, shouted down and in some cases physically attacked by students. Universities that allow these speakers to visit must put a lot of security in place. In some cases, the talks have been cancelled because the university could not guarantee the speaker’s safety. This ban is supported by the Democratic Party. Many university teachers are afraid to discuss hot button issues in class. Some students determine what topics and positions should be taught in class with the support of leftist university administrators. This extreme position of banning uncomfortable positions is undermining the quality of university education and upsetting voters.

Genocide in Gaza

Democrats thought that most of the young voters that joined long lines and waited for a long time to vote on Election Day, or who did mail-in ballot were going to support them, especially since many of these young voters support sexual identity and transgender rights. They were mistaken. These were some of the same young people across university campuses in the summer protesting Israeli Genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. Some of these students were beaten and arrested by cops and suspended and/or expelled by university administrators with the support of President Biden to appease the Jewish lobby. Many of these students along with Arabs and Muslims have long memories and did not support Harris.

Finally, most my political forecasting colleagues of the American Political Science Association used political-economy models and predicted a Trump win. These forecasters did not make the media rounds. However, they knew the Democrats should have framed the rising inflation as resulting from corporate greed. “It is the economy stupid,” and more. Also, Biden should have given up the presidency a year ago and the primaries would have yielded the best Democratic presidential nominee. You just can’t trump race and gender, pun intended. The Democrats have started the blame game. However, they should do a serious assessment of why they lost because more Americans voted for Biden in 2020 than Harris in 2024. Democrats must recalibrate their position on many issues that resonate with most voters to win future elections.

Christopher A.D. Charles Ph.D. is a full Professor of Political and Social Psychology at the University of the West Indies.