Army general predicts more instability in Francophone Africa

French General François Lecointre had a special event on 6 June. He was on a tour aimed at advertising his book published in April, Entre guerres, that presents a soldier’s point of view on the necessity and purpose of war. During that tour, Lecointre aired his views on the political situation in Francophone Africa. What startled many people is the violence that he predicts, as part of the future of those countries.

It was in Strasbourg, France while advertising his book, that President Macron’s former Chief of Defence made statements aimed at preparing public opinion, and that of the French in particular, for a French military intervention in Burkina Faso and in the Sahel area in general. Members of the audience, especially the Burkinabè were shocked and many of them posted that information and advised their compatriots to take the General’s statement seriously, since a military intervention in Burkina or the Sahel will have enormous repercussions on Africa and the whole world. Although he did not mention the date of such an operation, this high-ranking army officer clearly stated that the next genocide in Africa will be in Burkina Faso.

Such words, coming from a person of Lecointre’s caliber and experience, are heavy. He served as Chief of Defence in France between 2017 and 2021 and was elevated to the rank of Grand Chancellor of the Order of the Legion of Honour on 1 February 2023. He possesses firsthand experience on peace and security issues like the horrendous genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda, since he was involved in Opération Turquoise in 1994 in Rwanda. He also keeps abreast of the current socio-political developments in Francophone Africa. That analysis was considered to be a warning regarding a recolonization of Africa by France in the next 10 years. Lecointre’s statement is based on his evaluation of the situation on the continent, through conservative lens. That certainly does not come as a surprise, since the speaker is a seasoned military officer who is supposed to be patriotic, committed to defending the interests of his country as well as to possess a position and inclination vis à vis the geopolitical scene.

To Lecointre, the “withdrawal” or departure of the French army, is the result of the frustration of African masses and a generation a new leaders. The points he made include the following: Europe (and France in particular) must return to Africa in about 10 to 20 years and re-establish their power, control or influence. I find his assertions to be surprisingly imperialistic in this day and age. He sees Francophone Africa as an area plagued by numerous failures such as the destruction of the political machinery, an imminent demographic explosion and a panoply of difficulties related to climate change. So, to the French General, his country has the moral duty to carry out her mission which is to salvage the African continent. That, therefore, means that all European countries have to embark upon a “repossession” of their former colonies. To him, what is currently happening on the African continent, and its Francophone side in particular, is synonymous with the failure of France and Europe. The former “centre” cannot lose their control over the former “periphery”. So, what he means is that the current generation of European leaders must not accept the defeat of Europe on the African continent.

That view is obviously the contrary to what is occurring in Africa and what could be the future of Africa. Autonomy and the “thirst” for self-reliance is acute in today’s Africa, at least in French-speaking countries, especially the areas that recently witnessed military take overs. As I mentioned few days ago, the fever that got hold of those countries is simply a dialectical, scientific   and logical development of the maturity of Francophone Africa’s consciousness. The populations are sick and tired of French hegemony and the hindrance to development that it represents. So, to see these novel dynamics as a call for the recolonization of the continent is incoherent; it is simply a judgement that carries a hidden agenda, that of a nation, country or continent preoccupied with maintaining their domination over Africa, at the socio-political and economic levels.

A detail that Lecointre allegedly provided is the fact that the genocide, which is imminent, can be prevented by the military intervention of France and, in reality, that military operation could be justified if one considers the following. The Fulani, nomads living in almost all the Sahelian African countries, are generally perceived to be agents of terrorists who are wreaking havoc in Sahelian Africa. What is also difficult to deny is the fact that the Fulani are indeed viewed with suspicion in Sahelian Africa since most of the terrorists who are killed or apprehended indicate proof of connection with the Fulani population. The reasons behind this “alliance” could be traced to ethnic, religious, historical and political realities or antecedents. Indeed, many analysts see in the destabilization of Africa an attempt to reorganize or re-create certain empires that existed in Africa, prior to colonization.

The General therefore states that the Fulani will be at the centre of a genocide in the near future in Burkina Faso. Although he was not specific on who will be the perpetrators and victims of that horrendous fact, if it were to happen, one could speculate that the Fulani who are a minority in terms of number or population are powerful since they allegedly have strong allies both in and outside Africa. In such a case, one could say or imagine that General Lecointre is alluding to a possible situation in which the Fulani will be targeted by non-Fulani populations in Africa.

This is obviously not a happy prediction. The genocide of the Tutsi in Rwanda is notoriously fresh in people’s mind. It took some time before the “super powers” like the US and others called it genocide. The implication of France in that genocide is now clear and another coincidence is that this year is the thirtieth anniversary of the Rwandan genocide. Africa should be ready to counter that recolonization by Europe and do all she can, as a continent, to avoid genocide.

This prediction of a genocide frightened a large number of Africans, and they are following closely the continuous developments on their continent. What provides some degree of hope is the fact that African populations, at least in the Sahel area, are no more passive spectators of daily happenings on the continent.

Moussa Traoré is Associate Professor at the Department of English of the University of Cape Coast, Ghana.